Play the Player, Not the Game

Random isn't random when humans are involved. We can sometimes be egregiously predictable, due to the habits we form, which can be easily exploited. If I asked you to pick a number from 1 to 10, chances are you picked lucky number 7.

A surprising amount of people (almost 30%!) picked 7, as opposed to the expected 10%. Curious, I did a little experiment of my own and found that 5 out of 12 people I asked picked 7.

This isn't limited to just a simple party trick. Let's take another example: a game of mafia.

You are accused of being mafia. What do you do?

A) Stonewall- becoming quiet and refusing to respond to any accusations

B) Deflect any and all accusations, blameshifting onto the next most suspicious person or

C) Employing the age old tactic of whataboutism, where you answer the question with a question of your own.

People tend to avoid options that don't work for them, and stick to options that do. They often employ the same strategies relentlessly, to the point where it becomes a habit which, like I explained before, can be easily exploited.

Say for example you find yourself deflecting and blameshifting a lot. If I can pick up on that deflection as we play and notice you as you try to weasel your way out of a sticky situation, instead of playing calmly as usual as you might be as town, I can confidently say there's a good chance you might be mafia.

The idea is that you play your cards close to your chest, waiting and watching, as your oblivious victims show their hands, uncovering their habits. Let them win the first game and they might even go as far as to reveal their secrets to you as they gloat about their victory. They may have won the battle, but if they're cocky enough to go for another round, you'll win the war.

Now that you understand your opponents' playstyle, you'll be able to discover the mafia easily. However, they won't just roll over and take the loss. Your opponents will also try their best to read your habits and adapt as you take advantage of their glaring weaknesses, so you'll have to adapt as well, making sure you don't become predictable and easy to read.

By reading people (watching their actions and making predictions based on them) you can gain the advantage and come out on top against them in any game (not limited to just mafia) by playing the players, exploiting their habits, versus simply trying to find the best strategy to win the game in general.

The moral of the story is that, if you can play your opponents, observing each of their mannerisms, picking each of them apart and finding counters to each of their usual strategies, there's a good chance you'll come out on top.

Until they all band together to vote you round 1 for being too suspicious...

- Fayiz